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The Last Campaign

Political Wire - May 20, 2008 - 11:00am
Here's another interesting book out later this month: The Last Campaign: Robert F. Kennedy and 82 Days That Inspired America by Thurston Clarke.

From the book jacket: "After John F. Kennedy's assassination, Robert Kennedy--formerly Jack's no-holds-barred political warrior--almost lost hope. He was haunted by his brother's murder, and by the nation's seeming inabilities to solve its problems of race, poverty, and the war in Vietnam. Bobby sensed the country's pain, and when he announced that he was running for president, the country united behind his hopes. Over the action-packed eighty-two days of his campaign, Americans were inspired by Kennedy's promise to lead them toward a better time. And after an assassin's bullet stopped this last great stirring public figure of the 1960s, crowds lined up along the country's railroad tracks to say goodbye to Bobby."

Categories: Politics

The peak oil culture wars

Peak Oil - 0 sec ago
...Some conservatives may indeed look down their noses at rubbing shoulders with the hoi polloi on buses and subway trains. But the antipathy expressed by the right toward the peak oil camp (which is where Krugman is positioning himself, even if he doesn't utter the magic words), goes much, much dee...
Categories: Peak Oil

CNN Wonders 'What If' Oil Hit $200 a Barrel

Peak Oil - 0 sec ago
Segment features speculation by reporter and 'peak oil' analyst, with no counter-arguments from today's reality. As if record-high gas prices weren’t enough, CNN’s “Your $$$$$” speculated about “what if” oil were to spike to $200 a barrel. “Well, if you think it is bad now, it could get w...
Categories: Peak Oil

World CO2 levels at record high, scientists warn

Peak Oil - 0 sec ago
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has reached a record high, according to new figures that renew fears that climate change could begin to slide out of control. Scientists at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii say that CO2 levels in the atmosphere now stand at 387 parts per mill...
Categories: Peak Oil

Why pump prices need to stay high

Peak Oil - 0 sec ago
Driving less? More than two-thirds of car owners already are. It's a natural reflex to $50-$70 tank fill-ups. But US drivers may also know it's time to pay a price to curb global warming. That may be one reason they reject the campaign stunt of urging a holiday for the federal gas tax. US politici...
Categories: Peak Oil

Old gas pumps can't handle ever-rising prices

Peak Oil - 0 sec ago
REARDAN, Wash. - Mom-and-pop service stations are running into a problem as gasoline marches toward $4 a gallon: Thousands of old-fashioned pumps can't register more than $3.99 on their spinning mechanical dials. The pumps, throwbacks to a bygone era on the American road, are difficult and expensi...
Categories: Peak Oil

The heat is on

Peak Oil - 9 min 10 sec ago
Centrica, the owner of British Gas, sits between a rock and a hard place. Every time it raises prices for its millions of domestic gas and electricity customers it risks a consumer backlash. This January's price hike is the main driver for the loss of about 100,000 accounts. Another price rise will...
Categories: Peak Oil

McCain Differs With Bush on Climate Change

Peak Oil - 15 min 26 sec ago
PORTLAND, Ore. — Senator John McCain sought to distance himself from President Bush on Monday as he called for a mandatory limit on greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. Mr. McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, also pledged to work with the European Union to impose puni...
Categories: Peak Oil

It's Climate That Changes, But Weather That Kills You

TreeHugger - 41 min 47 sec ago
Getty Images What makes the tragedy in Burma so horrifying? Is it the clearing of the mangroves? Is it the venality and cruelty of the Burmese junta that is not letting relief workers in while it is actually shipping out rice to Bangladesh to "meet contractual obligations" ie, get foreign exchange? Or is it climate instability that comes from global warming? One can't say that, or you will get your tapes edited by Fox News

Categories: Environment

White Voters, Obama and Appalachia

Daily Kos - 1 hour 30 sec ago

Beginning with the Potomac primaries, a trend emerged: Hillary Clinton posted overwhelming victories across the Appalachian region.  The trend continued through the Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries.  

The media bloviators have lapped up the silliness from the Clinton campaign that Obama has a "white working class problem."  If that were true, we would see the evidence in the election results, not just in the exit polls.  I am not sanguine about racism in America; racism permeates almost every facet of life around Detroit, my home town.  There are some voters who will never vote for a black man.  But most of those people who can not get beyond a person's race are Republicans.  I don't believe Obama "transcends race," whatever that's supposed to mean.  Few people don't notice or think about his race.  But most swing voters who could succumb to veiled racial appeals are comfortable voting for this particular Black man.  

Furthermore, many of the voters currently supporting Hillary Clinton simply prefer her to Obama.  Until the campaign turned more contentious over the last few months, most Clinton voters, according to the polls, were fine with supporting Obama.  I don't think recent polls that show Clinton supporters unwilling to support Obama are a good indicator of how they will vote in November.  They won't vote for McCain, and--especially if Hillary Clinton eventually rediscovers some graciousness--they will support Obama.

I don't believe Obama has a significant "race problem."  However, I do believe that he has and will continue to have a problem with some white voters who are clustered mostly in Appalachia.  To see if there was a good visual representation, I enlisted the help of Kossack meng bomin, who's created a bunch of really excellent maps (such as this  outstanding series of maps showing the evolution of the Democratic primary vote from January through last week).

First, let's define how we'll be using "Appalachia."  In the 1960's, one out of three people in Appalachia   lived poverty, per capita income was 23% lower than the national average, and the region was rapidly losing population.  In 1963 the Appalachian Regional Commission was created by Congress and President Kennedy to address the problems in the area highlighted in the map.  Since the 1960's counties near Atlanta, Huntsville AL and Pittsburgh have become wealthier much more developed.  But much of the region remains well below national standards in most measures of economic and social well-being.

The ethnic and cultural character of this part of the country has been more static since the 19th century than anyplace in America.  Outside of some of the new growth areas north of Atlanta or Huntsville, or in some of the college towns, most of the people in Appalachia trace their heritage back to immigrants from the borderlands of Northern Britain who began settling the region over 200 years ago.  Outside of the Northern part of Appalachia—Pennsylvania in particular—relatively few Eastern or Southern Europeans from the great waves of immigration that started in the 1880's have moved in to the area.  It's the most homogeneous region in America.  The region is home to few Catholics, and is heavily Baptist and Methodist.  

In the 19th century, migrants from Appalachia moved west.  People from Appalachia settled and put their stamp on the Ozark region of Missouri and Arkansas, on Okalahoma and the southern Plains, on North Texas, and eventually they were a big part of the initial growth of Southern California.  

First, to see if Obama has a "problem" with white voters, it's worth looking at where he's performed well.  Not surprisingly, he's done well in Northern cities and southern rural areas with very large populations of African Americans.  But his appeal is not limited to African-Americans and higher-income, highly-educated whites.  

[click on maps for greater detail]

Counties where Obama won at least 55% of the vote in green:

Counties where Obama won at least 65% of the vote in green:

As we see, his appeal is not geographically limited.

But if he has a serious "problem" with white voters, we would see it in numerous regions across the country.  We do not see that.  So where do we see Clinton doing well, and where do we see her racking up big wins?

Counties where Clinton won at least 55% of the vote in purple:

Counties where Clinton won at least 65% of the vote in purple:

Clinton, like Obama, has posted solid wins (55% and up) in many different parts of the country.  But her biggest wins--the places where she beat Obama by margins of 2 to 1 or better--have come almost exclusively in Appalachia or in areas originally settled by Appalachian migrants that remain relatively homogeneous compared to the rest of the country.

How do these results track with the distribution of people based on religious affiliation?  Let me be clear: I am NOT suggesting that there are religious reasons to explain why Clinton or Obama might do better or worse with Baptists or Methodists.  Rather, religious affiliation, which is highly correlated with the denominational affiliation of one's parents, is an indicator of family background and regional heritage.  I am not making a strong causal argument, but noting the correlation between the heritage of voters in Appalachia who have been favoring Clinton by margins of better than 2 to 1 and those voting the same way in other parts of the country:

Distribution of Baptists by county:

Distribution of Methodists by county:

What does this mean going forward?  Well, first of all, there's no reason to expect that Obama will do well in West Virginia or Kentucky.  The counties surrounding both states have gone overwhelmingly for Clinton, so it would be extraordinary if Clinton didn't post big wins in both states.  

The other thing demonstrated by these maps is a strong regional distribution of white voters seemingly disinclined to vote for Obama.  I'll try to address some of the reasons for this tendency in future posts.  In the meantime, it would be great if pundits and politicos would recognize and acknowledge that race doesn't appear to have been much of a hindrance for Obama in the Democratic primaries, except, it appears, in Appalachia and in some regions where descendants of Appalachian migrants settled, such as the Ozarks, Oklahoma, and some isolated rural communities on the Plains.  Obama doesn't appear to have much of a problem with white voters.  But it seems quite likely Appalachia has a bit of an Obama problem.  

Categories: Around the Blogs

Output from huge Kashagan field delayed once again

Peak Oil - 1 hour 1 min ago
Eni, Italy's largest oil company, and partners developing the Kashagan oil field in the Caspian Sea may delay production by as much as two years, the fourth postponement at the 7 billion- to 9 billion-barrel Kazakhstan discovery. The start of commercial output may not occur until 2012 or 2013, said...
Categories: Peak Oil

Japan scientists warn Arctic ice melting fast

Peak Oil - 1 hour 10 min ago
TOKYO (Reuters) - Arctic ice is melting fast and the area covered by ice sheets in ocean could shrink this summer to the smallest since 1978 when satellite observation first started, Japanese scientists warned in a report. Ice sheets in the Arctic Ocean shrank to the smallest area on record in late...
Categories: Peak Oil

lauraloveskatrina.com - laura loves katrina and …

Technorati Tag: Katrina - 1 hour 22 min ago
18 u.s.c. … … Read More …

Why Obama Wants Clinton To Stay In

MyDD - 1 hour 24 min ago

I give you two reasons why the Obama campaign probably does, and all Obama supporters should , want Hillary Clinton to continue to campaign for the Democratic nomination:

Suffolk U poll of 600 Likely West Virginia voters, May 10-11, MoE +/- 4%

Hillary Clinton 60
Barack Obama 24

Research 2000 poll of 500 Likely Kentucky voters, May 7-9, MoE +/- 4.5%

Hillary Clinton 58
Barack Obama 31

As The LA Times noted yesterday:

Times political writer Mark Z. Barabak had an interesting conversation with Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist not involved with a candidate this time. Counterintuitively, the way he sees the inevitable delegate math in favor of Barack Obama, the worst thing that could happen to the Illinois senator now is what so many party members are clamoring for: Hillary Rodham Clinton to drop out.

Why?

Because with her name still on the ballots, she'd be very likely to win in West Virginia anyway. And maybe Kentucky too, given the demographics in both places. And possibly Puerto Rico as well.

How would that look if at the end of the Democratic race the winning candidate with clearly the most delegates and popular votes went down to defeat against a candidate who isn't in the contest anymore?


Tags: 2008 presidential election, democratic nomination, barack obama, hillary clinton (all tags)

Categories: Politics

ATF chief: Crime rose as cities' funding dropped (AP)

Yahoo!: Top Stories - 1 hour 28 min ago

AP - Violent crime has increased in some cities in recent years in part because local police are too cash-strapped to fight it, the ATF chief said Monday.


Categories: U.S. News

Analysis: Dems wonder about Clinton exit strategy (AP)

Yahoo!: Elections - 1 hour 31 min ago

AP - Once Hillary Rodham Clinton jumped into the presidential race with an "in it to win it" flourish. Now Democrats speculate endlessly about an exit strategy that she ponders privately, if at all.


Categories: Elections

Analysis: Dems wonder about Clinton exit strategy (AP)

Yahoo!: Politics - 1 hour 31 min ago

AP - Once Hillary Rodham Clinton jumped into the presidential race with an "in it to win it" flourish. Now Democrats speculate endlessly about an exit strategy that she ponders privately, if at all.


Categories: Politics

Chrysler Cancels Plan for SUV to Invest in Compact, Press Says

Peak Oil - 1 hour 40 min ago
(Bloomberg) -- Chrysler LLC, the automaker owned by private-equity firm Cerberus Capital Management LP, canceled plans for a new sport-utility vehicle and is instead investing in a compact car. The company won't build a Chrysler brand version of the Dodge Journey SUV in 2009 and will use the savi...
Categories: Peak Oil

Ex-Republican aims for president

BBC: Americas - 1 hour 40 min ago
Former Republican Congressman Bob Barr announces he wants to run for the White House for a third party.
Categories: U.S. News

Will Hillary only get 8% of the black vote?

AmericaBlog - 1 hour 50 min ago
As we approach the West Virginia and Kentucky primaries, Hillary is once again telling us that how a candidate does in a primary dictates how they will do in the general election. Meaning, if Obama loses to Hillary in the primary in a certain state, then he will lose to McCain in the fall in that state. It's total bull, but nonetheless, that's what Hillary keeps saying. So, I guess that means that no blacks will be voting for Hillary in the fall since they're not voting for her now. Specifically, Hillary will only get 8% of the black vote in the fall, dooming her candidacy, were she to be handed the nomination by the Superdelegates. The Roman Quintilian once said, "a liar should have a good memory." Meaning, you really need to keep track of your lies or they end up biting you in the ass. Marc Ambinder explores the Clintons' perverted logic.

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